These Census Bureau projections are based on assumptions about future childbearing, mortality, and migration. The level of childbearing among women is expected to remain close to present levels, with differences by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time. Mortality should decline gradually, with convergence among race and ethnic groups.
International migration is expected to generally decrease relative to the size of the population. Summary tables of these national population projections, as well as a detailed description of the methodology can be accessed on the Census Bureau web site www. By the middle of the 21st century, America will have no clear "majority" race. Today 30 percent of the U. Latino and Asian populations are expected to triple.
Today, because of high Latino birthrates, one in five American children under the age of 5 is Hispanic; increasingly most Hispanic growth will come from the children of those born in America. More Multiracial. At the same time, these varying groups, and particularly their children, will become ever more multiracial in their outlook. The percentage of Americans of mixed race is growing significantly among people under 18; in California and Nevada mixed-marriage rates are at more than 13 percent, and in the rest of the Southwest a heavily Latino population increasingly intermarries with other ethnic groups.
We will see more of this kind of interracial pairing in the future. According to market research firm Teen Research Unlimited, 60 percent of American teens say they have friends of different ethnic backgrounds.
Even more telling, a Gallup Poll showed that 95 percent of young people ages 18 to 29 approved of interracial dating -- compared with only 45 percent of respondents over the age of Europe also will continue to be a source of immigrants as many talented young Europeans continue to escape the continental nursing home by heading to the United States.
But by far the largest groups of immigrants to the U. The United Nations estimates that 2 million people will move to developed countries annually until , and more than half will come to the United States. Some of best educated and most successful, of course, will then go back home, as has been case throughout most of American history.
But many more will stay, often for very mundane reasons, such as the chance to live in a dwelling larger than a shoebox or to have more than one child. Others will cherish the chance to live without worrying about the depredations of some party bureaucrat, caudillo or religious fanatic. These immigrants are not seeking a spot on the Titanic. They realize that, despite its many failings, America is uniquely able to reinvent and re-energize itself. This greater diversity will become increasingly evident across an expanding landscape, including many once homogeneous areas like the Great Plains.
But the new epicenter for diversity will lie in the once overwhelmingly white suburbs, which now increasingly are settled by minorities and immigrants.
Of the million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.
All these assumptions are built on recent trends. But it is important to note that these trends can change. All population projections have inherent uncertainties, especially for years further in the future, because they can be affected by changes in behavior, by new immigration policies, or by other events.
Nonetheless, projections offer a starting point for understanding and analyzing the parameters of future demographic change. There were 59 children and elderly people per adults of working age in That will rise to 72 dependents per adults of working age in The report also offers two alternative population projections, one based on lower immigration assumptions and one based on higher immigration assumptions.
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